Trump’s Guilty Verdict Sparks Speculation on 2024 Election Impact

Former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush-money case has raised questions about its potential impact on the 2024 presidential election. While some polls suggest a drop in Trump’s support, the extent and permanence of this shift remain uncertain. The CNN/SSRS and Emerson College polls indicate that a significant portion of Trump’s base might reconsider their support if he is convicted. However, it’s essential to note that these polls do not necessarily reflect a definitive change in voting intentions.

ABC News/Ipsos polling data corroborates this notion, revealing that only a small fraction of Trump supporters would no longer back him in the event of a conviction. The majority would continue to support him, while a subset would reconsider their stance. Historical precedent supports the hypothesis that the conviction may not cause a mass defection to Biden, but it could still have a discernible impact on the race. The 1-point gain for Biden is not insignificant, especially in a close contest like the one shaping up for 2024.

Biden Seeks to Comfort Backers Amid July 4 Celebrations

During July 4 festivities, President Joe Biden conveyed to important supporters his awareness that his prospects as a contender hinge on his ability to persuade the electorate of his suitability for the role following his calamitous debate showing. This effort to reassure his backers comes as Biden faces challenges in the polls and calls for withdrawal from the race.

Biden’s polling progress has been a subject of interest, with recent updates suggesting that he has narrowed the gap with Donald Trump. The New York Times reports that Biden has risen in the polls around his State of the Union address and after Trump’s conviction last month. The two are tied in the polls, with around 46 percent of the vote each.

Poll Averages Show Trump Leading in Battleground States

The latest polling averages from The New York Times combine data from many polls, both for the U.S. as a whole and for battleground states. These averages show that Trump leads in likely to decide the outcome of the election, particularly in states like Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia.

The polls suggest that Trump holds a small edge in these crucial states, which would be enough to secure the Electoral College and therefore the presidency. Nate Cohn notes that while Biden has narrowed the gap, Trump often leads by a point or two, giving him an advantage in the electoral count.

Democratic Party Urged to Deliberate on Biden’s Campaign Future

Concerns among lawmakers and Democratic contributors have arisen over the effectiveness of Biden’s recent interview in salvaging his campaign. This has led to calls for the Democratic Party to deliberate thoughtfully before considering a replacement for Joe Biden.

Senate Democrats have scheduled a meeting to deliberate on the future of the Biden campaign next week, amid divergent views among Democratic contributors on the next steps. Some have granted Biden additional time, while others are pushing for change.

Biden Gears Up for Crucial TV Interview

Following a rally to demonstrate his capabilities, Biden is preparing for a crucial TV interview. This comes as he reaffirms his commitment to staying in the competition, despite polling challenges and calls for withdrawal.

Biden’s campaign is facing intense scrutiny, with some lawmakers and contributors questioning his ability to win the election. The upcoming TV interview is seen as a crucial moment for Biden to regain momentum and reassure his supporters.

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